Sun, Apr 12 2026 • 14:45 •
AFAS Stadion
Expected Goals
2.13 (league 1.76)
1.79 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.1% | 20.7% | 32.1% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.1%
1 - 1
7.6%
2 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Heerenveen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 87% |
| Attack | 64% | 100% |
| Defense | 36% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
69%
FT probability
3.5+
49%
FT probability
BTTS
82%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 50% | 40% | 45% | 47% | 36% | 41% |
| Draws | 36% | 7% | 21% | 33% | 21% | 28% |
| Loses | 14% | 53% | 34% | 20% | 43% | 31% |
AZ AlkmaarWDWWDDLWWWWLLLDLWLDWLDWWLLWLW
HeerenveenDLLDLWDWWDDLWLLWWDLDLWWLWWWDW
League goals
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 18 | 49 | 31 | 22 | 53 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 21 | 24 | 45 | 23 | 24 | 47 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 76% | 83% | 90% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 45% | 59% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 24% | 34% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 7% | 7% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 32% | 68% |
| Att | 35% | 65% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 63% | 37% |
| Total | 46.3% | 53.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.83 @ Betano
Draw4.45 @ 188Bet
Away4.22 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.44 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.53.00 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.42 @ Betano
No3.00 @ 188Bet
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League standings
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