Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:15 •
Stadion Woudestein
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.75)
1.57 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 18.3% | 25.3% | 55.8% |
best score tips
0 - 1
15.1%
0 - 2
11.9%
1 - 1
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Utrecht | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Excelsior | 0 | 9.7% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Utrecht carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 45 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Excelsior -24.9, Utrecht +31.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Excelsior
vs
Utrecht
Elo gapUtrecht +45
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo3021.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3021.2
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Excelsior | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1470.8 | 1550.4 |
| Form Elo | 1448.2 | 1580.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1482.2 | 1517.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1471.4 | 1575.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1502.6 | 1608.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -24.9 | +31.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Excelsior last-5 Elo change: -24.9; Utrecht last-5 Elo change: +31.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Excelsior | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 67% |
| Attack | 28% | 61% |
| Defense | 50% | 72% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Excelsior | Utrecht | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 27% | 20% | 23% | 53% | 27% | 40% |
| Draws | 13% | 33% | 23% | 20% | 33% | 27% |
| Loses | 60% | 47% | 53% | 27% | 40% | 33% |
ExcelsiorLLLWLWLLWLDLWWLWLDDDDWLLLLLDLD
UtrechtWLWWLLDLWLWWDDDDLLLDLWWDWDWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Excelsior | Utrecht | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 17 | 31 | 27 | 22 | 49 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 21 | 30 | 51 | 13 | 23 | 36 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Excelsior | Utrecht | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 83% | 83% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 60% | 50% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 10% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Excelsior | Utrecht | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Excelsior | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Excelsior | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-0 | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Excelsior | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Att | 31% | 69% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 35% | 65% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 31% | 69% |
| Total | 27.5% | 72.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.20 @ Bet365
Draw3.60 @ Unibet
Away2.25 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.80 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.12 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.65 @ Betfair
No2.28 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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