Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 19:00 •
De Grolsch Veste
Expected Goals
1.55 (league 1.75)
1.71 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 34.6% | 23.1% | 41.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.2%
1 - 2
8.7%
2 - 1
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| NEC Nijmegen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Twente | 0 | 3.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Twente carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 23 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Twente +22.3, NEC Nijmegen +22.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Twente
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Elo gapTwente +23
Home / draw / away38% / 27% / 35%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3260.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3260.9
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Twente | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1624.3 | 1636.6 |
| Form Elo | 1646.4 | 1636 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1539.4 | 1568.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1646.4 | 1737.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1581 | 1499.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.3 | +22.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Twente last-5 Elo change: +22.3; NEC Nijmegen last-5 Elo change: +22.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Twente | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 73% |
| Attack | 71% | 79% |
| Defense | 57% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Twente | NEC Nijmegen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 53% | 40% | 47% | 53% | 47% | 50% |
| Draws | 27% | 47% | 37% | 27% | 33% | 30% |
| Loses | 20% | 13% | 17% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
TwenteLLWLDWWWDLDDDWDWDDWDDWDWWWLWWW
NEC NijmegenWWWLLLWDDDLWWWWDDWWWWLDDLWWDWD
League goals
| Metric | Twente | NEC Nijmegen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 27 | 51 | 38 | 34 | 72 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| GA total | 15 | 17 | 32 | 23 | 25 | 48 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Twente | NEC Nijmegen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 77% | 97% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 23% | 80% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 7% | 43% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 0% | 17% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Twente | NEC Nijmegen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Twente | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 8 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 8 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Twente | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 1-0 | 3-5 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Twente | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 52% | 48% |
| Att | 48% | 52% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 48% | 52% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 59% | 41% |
| Total | 53.8% | 46.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.99 @ 1xBet
Draw4.10 @ Dafabet
Away3.50 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.47 @ Betano
Under 2.52.95 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.44 @ Bet365
No2.88 @ Unibet
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League standings
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