Fri, Sep 19 2025 • 18:30 • Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.76 (league 1.56) 1.60 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.2% 22.7% 34.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.8%
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 2
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stal Mielec 0 3.5% 5.5% 4.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
1 6.1% 9.8% 7.8% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5%
2 5.4% 8.6% 6.9% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5%
3 3.2% 5.1% 4.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
4 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricStal MielecPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Played55
Form47%33%
Attack29%53%
Defense59%41%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.410 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

69%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

83%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Stal Mielec Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
HATHAT
Played549549
Wins20%50%33%60%0%33%
Draws40%0%22%40%25%33%
Loses40%50%44%0%75%33%

Form: Stal Mielec: LWLDLWWDL • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: WDWLWLDLD

League goals

Metric Stal Mielec Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
HATHAT
GF total661214418
GF avg1.21.51.32.81.02.0
GA total118196915
GA avg2.22.02.11.22.31.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineStal MielecPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%89%89%89%
1.533%67%56%44%
2.511%33%33%33%
3.511%22%22%0%
4.511%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricStal MielecPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
HATHAT
Clean sheets011101
Failed to score123011

Penalties

MetricStal MielecPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricStal MielecPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Wins21
Draws11
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-14-54-0
Biggest losses0-42-03-0
Goals For2542
Goals Against4433

Model comparison

MetricStal MielecPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Form58%42%
Att36%64%
Def59%41%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total51.0%49.0%

Advice: Double chance : Stal Mielec or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.35 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.85 @ Pinnacle
Away2.80 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.62 @ Dafabet
Under 2.52.35 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ Dafabet
No2.55 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Stal Mielec = 1.76 (league 1.56), Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki = 1.60 (league 1.38)

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stal Mielec 0 3.5% 5.5% 4.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
1 6.1% 9.8% 7.8% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5%
2 5.4% 8.6% 6.9% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5%
3 3.2% 5.1% 4.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
4 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.2% · Draw 22.7% · Away win 34.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1