Fri, Sep 26 2025 • 18:15 • Stade de la Fontenette
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.41 (league 1.57) 2.35 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
21.9% 19.3% 55.2%
best score tips
1 - 2
9.1%
1 - 1
7.7%
1 - 3
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
FC Aarau
0 1 2 3 4 5
Étoile Carouge 0 2.3% 5.5% 6.4% 5.0% 3.0% 1.4%
1 3.3% 7.7% 9.1% 7.1% 4.2% 2.0%
2 2.3% 5.4% 6.4% 5.0% 2.9% 1.4%
3 1.1% 2.6% 3.0% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6%
4 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
Played55
Form27%100%
Attack31%85%
Defense46%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.811 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Étoile Carouge FC Aarau
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins33%0%14%100%100%100%
Draws67%0%29%0%0%0%
Loses0%100%57%0%0%0%

Form: Étoile Carouge: LDLLDLW • FC Aarau: WWWWWWW

League goals

Metric Étoile Carouge FC Aarau
HATHAT
GF total4157916
GF avg1.30.30.71.83.02.3
GA total369055
GA avg1.01.51.30.01.70.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.557%100%100%29%
1.514%29%57%14%
2.50%0%43%14%
3.50%0%14%14%
4.50%0%14%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
HATHAT
Clean sheets000415
Failed to score033000

Penalties

MetricÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
Wins07
Draws10
Losses20

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-13-01-3
Biggest losses2-0
Goals For2135
Goals Against1204

Model comparison

MetricÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
Form21%79%
Att27%73%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution33%67%
H2h50%50%
Goals46%54%
Total35.5%64.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or FC Aarau

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.11 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.85 @ Pinnacle
Away1.77 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ William Hill
No2.14 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.01 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Étoile Carouge = 1.41 (league 1.57), FC Aarau = 2.35 (league 1.28)

FC Aarau
0 1 2 3 4 5
Étoile Carouge 0 2.3% 5.5% 6.4% 5.0% 3.0% 1.4%
1 3.3% 7.7% 9.1% 7.1% 4.2% 2.0%
2 2.3% 5.4% 6.4% 5.0% 2.9% 1.4%
3 1.1% 2.6% 3.0% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6%
4 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 21.9% · Draw 19.3% · Away win 55.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1