Fri, Oct 3 2025 • 18:00 • Sportcomplex De Toekomst
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.00 (league 1.80) 1.85 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
20.1% 22.6% 56.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.7%
0 - 1
10.7%
1 - 2
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
De Graafschap
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jong Ajax 0 5.8% 10.7% 9.9% 6.1% 2.8% 1.0%
1 5.8% 10.7% 9.9% 6.1% 2.8% 1.0%
2 2.9% 5.3% 5.0% 3.1% 1.4% 0.5%
3 1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricJong AjaxDe Graafschap
Played55
Form7%53%
Attack58%83%
Defense0%33%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.410 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.68 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Jong Ajax De Graafschap
HATHAT
Played459538
Wins25%0%11%40%33%38%
Draws25%20%22%20%33%25%
Loses50%80%67%40%33%38%

Form: Jong Ajax: LWLDDLLLL • De Graafschap: WLLLDWDW

League goals

Metric Jong Ajax De Graafschap
HATHAT
GF total77149413
GF avg1.81.41.61.81.31.6
GA total812209312
GA avg2.02.42.21.81.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineJong AjaxDe Graafschap
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%89%75%100%
1.544%67%50%38%
2.533%44%38%13%
3.511%22%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricJong AjaxDe Graafschap
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score123112

Penalties

MetricJong AjaxDe Graafschap
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricJong AjaxDe Graafschap
Wins11
Draws21
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-1—3-21-3
Biggest losses2-42-02-31-0
Goals For4333
Goals Against4431

Model comparison

MetricJong AjaxDe Graafschap
Form11%89%
Att41%59%
Def38%62%
Poisson Distribution34%66%
H2h40%60%
Goals42%58%
Total34.3%65.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or De Graafschap

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.75 @ Betfair
Draw4.68 @ Pinnacle
Away1.85 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.33 @ 10Bet
Under 2.53.50 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.36 @ Pinnacle
No3.27 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Jong Ajax = 1.00 (league 1.80), De Graafschap = 1.85 (league 1.40)

De Graafschap
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jong Ajax 0 5.8% 10.7% 9.9% 6.1% 2.8% 1.0%
1 5.8% 10.7% 9.9% 6.1% 2.8% 1.0%
2 2.9% 5.3% 5.0% 3.1% 1.4% 0.5%
3 1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 20.1% · Draw 22.6% · Away win 56.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1