Fri, Dec 12 2025 • 19:00 • De Geusselt
Match Finished

MVV

2 - 1
Expected Goals
1.88 (league 1.79) 1.65 (league 1.42)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.5% 22.0% 33.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.1%
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 2
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
Jong Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
MVV 0 2.9% 4.8% 4.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
1 5.5% 9.1% 7.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6%
2 5.2% 8.6% 7.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5%
3 3.3% 5.4% 4.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3%
4 1.5% 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMVVJong Ajax
Played55
Form27%27%
Attack36%43%
Defense29%43%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric MVV Jong Ajax
HATHAT
Played9101910919
Wins33%20%26%20%0%11%
Draws11%30%21%40%22%32%
Loses56%50%53%40%78%58%

Form: MVV: LLWDLLLWDWLWDLLLLDW • Jong Ajax: LWLDDLLLLDDDLLDLLWL

League goals

Metric MVV Jong Ajax
HATHAT
GF total131023141226
GF avg1.41.01.21.41.31.4
GA total161935162238
GA avg1.81.91.81.62.42.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMVVJong Ajax
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.558%79%74%84%
1.537%53%42%63%
2.521%32%16%37%
3.55%21%5%16%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMVVJong Ajax
HATHAT
Clean sheets224303
Failed to score358325

Penalties

MetricMVVJong Ajax
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricMVVJong Ajax
Wins11
Draws13
Losses44

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-12-44-1—
Biggest losses2-44-02-44-1
Goals For3443
Goals Against4444

Model comparison

MetricMVVJong Ajax
Form50%50%
Att45%55%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h62%38%
Goals43%57%
Total49.8%50.2%

Advice: Double chance : MVV or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.06 @ 188Bet
Draw4.37 @ Pinnacle
Away3.80 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.49 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.67 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.52 @ Pinnacle
No2.78 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): MVV = 1.88 (league 1.79), Jong Ajax = 1.65 (league 1.42)

Jong Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
MVV 0 2.9% 4.8% 4.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
1 5.5% 9.1% 7.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6%
2 5.2% 8.6% 7.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5%
3 3.3% 5.4% 4.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3%
4 1.5% 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.5% · Draw 22.0% · Away win 33.5%

vtt 4 , vtd1