Fri, Feb 6 2026 • 19:00 • De Vijverberg
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.47 (league 1.77) 1.76 (league 1.43)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
49.7% 19.0% 26.4%
best score tips
2 - 1
7.8%
2 - 2
6.9%
3 - 1
6.4%
Score & goals probability table
Jong Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
De Graafschap 0 1.5% 2.6% 2.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
1 3.6% 6.3% 5.6% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%
2 4.4% 7.8% 6.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.6%
3 3.7% 6.4% 5.7% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5%
4 2.3% 4.0% 3.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
5 1.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDe GraafschapJong Ajax
Played55
Form33%47%
Attack35%41%
Defense47%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

71%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

84%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric De Graafschap Jong Ajax
HATHAT
Played121325131124
Wins42%46%44%23%9%17%
Draws25%23%24%38%18%29%
Loses33%31%32%38%73%54%

Form: De Graafschap: WLLLDWDWDLDWWWWLWWWLWLLDD • Jong Ajax: LWLDDLLLLDDDLLDLLWLLLWDW

League goals

Metric De Graafschap Jong Ajax
HATHAT
GF total232245181533
GF avg1.91.71.81.41.41.4
GA total211940212546
GA avg1.81.51.61.62.31.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDe GraafschapJong Ajax
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%92%75%88%
1.564%48%46%63%
2.532%16%13%29%
3.54%4%4%13%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDe GraafschapJong Ajax
HATHAT
Clean sheets112303
Failed to score145426

Penalties

MetricDe GraafschapJong Ajax
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricDe GraafschapJong Ajax
Wins41
Draws13
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-44-11-2
Biggest losses2-42-02-44-1
Goals For3443
Goals Against4344

Model comparison

MetricDe GraafschapJong Ajax
Form42%58%
Att46%54%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution60%40%
H2h50%50%
Goals46%54%
Total48.5%51.5%

Advice: Double chance : De Graafschap or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.48 @ 10Bet
Draw5.80 @ Dafabet
Away7.60 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.30 @ Betano
Under 2.53.65 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.46 @ Pinnacle
No2.88 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): De Graafschap = 2.47 (league 1.77), Jong Ajax = 1.76 (league 1.43)

Jong Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
De Graafschap 0 1.5% 2.6% 2.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
1 3.6% 6.3% 5.6% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%
2 4.4% 7.8% 6.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.6%
3 3.7% 6.4% 5.7% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5%
4 2.3% 4.0% 3.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
5 1.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 49.7% · Draw 19.0% · Away win 26.4%

vtt 5 , vtd1