Fri, Mar 13 2026 • 19:00 • Mandemakers Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.66 (league 1.74) 2.06 (league 1.45)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
30.7% 21.1% 45.6%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.5%
1 - 1
8.3%
2 - 2
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
Jong AZ
0 1 2 3 4 5
Waalwijk 0 2.4% 5.0% 5.2% 3.5% 1.8% 0.8%
1 4.0% 8.3% 8.5% 5.9% 3.0% 1.2%
2 3.3% 6.9% 7.1% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0%
3 1.8% 3.8% 3.9% 2.7% 1.4% 0.6%
4 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricWaalwijkJong AZ
Played55
Form47%27%
Attack57%57%
Defense57%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.68 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

69%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Waalwijk Jong AZ
HATHAT
Played151530151530
Wins40%40%40%13%47%30%
Draws27%27%27%7%13%10%
Loses33%33%33%80%40%60%

Form: Waalwijk: WDLWLDWLWDLWWDLDWLLLWDWDWLLDWW • Jong AZ: LLLLWDLWDLLWWLLWLLWLLLWLWLWDLL

League goals

Metric Waalwijk Jong AZ
HATHAT
GF total242650213051
GF avg1.61.71.71.42.01.7
GA total232144332760
GA avg1.51.41.52.21.82.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineWaalwijkJong AZ
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%80%73%87%
1.550%50%53%60%
2.517%13%33%33%
3.510%3%10%20%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricWaalwijkJong AZ
HATHAT
Clean sheets336224
Failed to score033538

Penalties

MetricWaalwijkJong AZ
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricWaalwijkJong AZ
Wins22
Draws11
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-21-44-01-4
Biggest losses1-43-10-44-1
Goals For4444
Goals Against4344

Model comparison

MetricWaalwijkJong AZ
Form64%36%
Att50%50%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution44%56%
H2h71%29%
Goals58%42%
Total57.8%42.2%

Advice: Double chance : Waalwijk or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.86 @ 188Bet
Draw4.23 @ Pinnacle
Away3.64 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.45 @ Pinnacle
No2.84 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.43 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.88 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Waalwijk = 1.66 (league 1.74), Jong AZ = 2.06 (league 1.45)

Jong AZ
0 1 2 3 4 5
Waalwijk 0 2.4% 5.0% 5.2% 3.5% 1.8% 0.8%
1 4.0% 8.3% 8.5% 5.9% 3.0% 1.2%
2 3.3% 6.9% 7.1% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0%
3 1.8% 3.8% 3.9% 2.7% 1.4% 0.6%
4 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.7% · Draw 21.1% · Away win 45.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1