Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:00 •
Kooi Stadion
Expected Goals
1.76 (league 1.75)
1.33 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.7% | 23.3% | 28.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.7%
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 0
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Vitesse | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cambuur | 0 | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 4.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Cambuur carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 79 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cambuur -29.1, Vitesse +24.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Cambuur
vs
Vitesse
Elo gapCambuur +79
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3103
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3103
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Cambuur | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1573.4 | 1529.6 |
| Form Elo | 1553.1 | 1548.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1562 | 1525.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1618.1 | 1567.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1505.4 | 1509.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -29.1 | +24.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Cambuur last-5 Elo change: -29.1; Vitesse last-5 Elo change: +24.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cambuur | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 73% |
| Attack | 47% | 93% |
| Defense | 33% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 14 | 2.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cambuur | Vitesse | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 67% | 53% | 59% | 37% | 44% | 41% |
| Draws | 28% | 21% | 24% | 32% | 28% | 30% |
| Loses | 6% | 26% | 16% | 32% | 28% | 30% |
CambuurLWWWDWWWDWWDLWWDWDWWWWLWDWWWWDWLWLDDL
VitesseLDWLWWLDWLDWLDWLLDWLDWDLDWDLWWLWWDWWD
League goals
| Metric | Cambuur | Vitesse | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 40 | 33 | 73 | 33 | 30 | 63 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 20 | 27 | 47 | 28 | 25 | 53 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cambuur | Vitesse | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 92% | 70% | 78% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 32% | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 19% | 22% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 5% | 11% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cambuur | Vitesse | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cambuur | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cambuur | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-4 | 6-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 3-4 | 3-0 | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cambuur | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 79% | 21% |
| Total | 51.7% | 48.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.10 @ Dafabet
Draw4.50 @ Bet365
Away3.10 @ BetVictor
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.44 @ 888Sport
Under 2.52.95 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.44 @ Bet365
No3.00 @ Unibet
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League standings
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