Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:00 •
De Oude Meerdijk
Expected Goals
1.73 (league 1.75)
2.29 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.6% | 19.9% | 47.7% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.1%
1 - 1
7.1%
2 - 2
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
| De Graafschap | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Emmen | 0 | 1.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 3.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 1.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
De Graafschap carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 96 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Emmen -1.9, De Graafschap +33.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Emmen
vs
De Graafschap
Elo gapDe Graafschap +96
Home / draw / away30% / 19% / 51%
Expected home share37%
Combined Elo2981.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2981.2
Elo home share
37%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Emmen | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1425.2 | 1556 |
| Form Elo | 1417.1 | 1567.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1482.4 | 1528 |
| Attack Elo | 1507.9 | 1653 |
| Defense Elo | 1341.1 | 1483 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.9 | +33.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Emmen last-5 Elo change: -1.9; De Graafschap last-5 Elo change: +33.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Emmen | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 73% |
| Attack | 47% | 100% |
| Defense | 20% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 15 | 3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
70%
FT probability
3.5+
50%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Emmen | De Graafschap | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 39% | 21% | 30% | 53% | 44% | 49% |
| Draws | 28% | 21% | 24% | 16% | 33% | 24% |
| Loses | 33% | 58% | 46% | 32% | 22% | 27% |
EmmenLLLWWDWLLLWLWDWDDWLWLLDLLDLWWLDLLDWLD
De GraafschapWLLLDWDWDLDWWWWLWWWLWLLDDWWWDLWLWDWDW
League goals
| Metric | Emmen | De Graafschap | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 22 | 57 | 40 | 34 | 74 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 30 | 42 | 72 | 29 | 28 | 57 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Emmen | De Graafschap | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 86% | 86% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 49% | 54% | 68% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 32% | 35% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 19% | 8% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Emmen | De Graafschap | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Emmen | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Emmen | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 2-3 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-0 | 1-4 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Emmen | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 32% | 68% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 41.3% | 58.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.13 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.00 @ Betfair
Away2.15 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.40 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.53.10 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.36 @ William Hill
No3.20 @ Marathonbet
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League standings
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