Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:00 •
AFAS Trainingscomplex
Expected Goals
0.96 (league 1.75)
2.55 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 12.0% | 16.2% | 67.1% |
best score tips
0 - 2
9.7%
1 - 2
9.3%
0 - 3
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Roda | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Jong AZ | 0 | 3.0% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| 1 | 2.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 2.6% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Roda carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 38 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Jong AZ -5.4, Roda +7.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Jong AZ
vs
Roda
Elo gapRoda +38
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2912.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2912.5
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Jong AZ | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1419.8 | 1492.7 |
| Form Elo | 1402.4 | 1490.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1423.6 | 1537.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1562.9 | 1553.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1328.3 | 1433.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.4 | +7.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Jong AZ last-5 Elo change: -5.4; Roda last-5 Elo change: +7.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Jong AZ | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 53% |
| Attack | 40% | 60% |
| Defense | 13% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Jong AZ | Roda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 17% | 42% | 30% | 21% | 56% | 38% |
| Draws | 11% | 11% | 11% | 37% | 33% | 35% |
| Loses | 72% | 47% | 59% | 42% | 11% | 27% |
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RodaWWLDDWLWDWWWDDLDLDLWWDLDWLWWDLDLDWLWD
League goals
| Metric | Jong AZ | Roda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 35 | 59 | 26 | 33 | 59 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 36 | 40 | 76 | 28 | 24 | 52 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Jong AZ | Roda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 86% | 81% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 49% | 62% | 51% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 35% | 19% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 19% | 3% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Jong AZ | Roda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Jong AZ | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | Jong AZ | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-4 | 6-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-0 | 1-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Jong AZ | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 28% | 72% |
| Poisson Distribution | 29% | 71% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 61% | 39% |
| Total | 45.3% | 54.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.75 @ Bet365
Draw4.00 @ Betfair
Away2.36 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.44 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.40 @ Bet365
No3.10 @ Betfair
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League standings
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