Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:00 •
De Geusselt
Expected Goals
1.36 (league 1.75)
1.53 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.5% | 24.7% | 41.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.6%
1 - 2
8.9%
0 - 1
8.5%
Score & goals probability table
| FC OSS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| MVV | 0 | 5.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: MVV -33.3, FC OSS +42.0.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
MVV
vs
FC OSS
Elo gapFC OSS +8
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo2847.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2847.4
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | MVV | FC OSS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1402.2 | 1445.2 |
| Form Elo | 1390.4 | 1464.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1487.9 | 1490.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1369 | 1466.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1359.9 | 1424.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -33.3 | +42.0 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. MVV last-5 Elo change: -33.3; FC OSS last-5 Elo change: +42.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | MVV | FC OSS |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 80% |
| Attack | 13% | 87% |
| Defense | 33% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | MVV | FC OSS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 33% | 16% | 24% | 32% | 22% | 27% |
| Draws | 28% | 32% | 30% | 16% | 44% | 30% |
| Loses | 39% | 53% | 46% | 53% | 33% | 43% |
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FC OSSWLLLDWWLLDDDDLDDWLDLLWWLLLLDLDLDWLWWW
League goals
| Metric | MVV | FC OSS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 15 | 41 | 31 | 21 | 52 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 33 | 38 | 71 | 34 | 30 | 64 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | MVV | FC OSS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 59% | 84% | 76% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 51% | 38% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 32% | 16% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 19% | 11% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | MVV | FC OSS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | MVV | FC OSS |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | MVV | FC OSS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 2-4 | 4-0 | 3-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 5-0 | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | MVV | FC OSS |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 14% | 86% |
| Att | 13% | 87% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 32.3% | 67.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.56 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.75 @ Dafabet
Away2.65 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.53 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.55 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.45 @ Unibet
No2.70 @ Betfair
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League standings
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