Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 14:30 • Stadion Schützenwiese
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.85 (league 1.89) 0.52 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
68.4% 20.7% 9.7%
best score tips
1 - 0
17.2%
2 - 0
15.9%
3 - 0
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
FC Lugano
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Winterthur 0 9.3% 4.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 17.2% 9.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 15.9% 8.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
3 9.9% 5.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 4.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC WinterthurFC Lugano
Played55
Form7%47%
Attack33%47%
Defense0%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)17 | 3.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

69%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC Winterthur FC Lugano
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins0%0%0%50%0%29%
Draws33%25%29%25%0%14%
Loses67%75%71%25%100%57%

Form: FC Winterthur: LDLDLLL • FC Lugano: LLWLLDW

League goals

Metric FC Winterthur FC Lugano
HATHAT
GF total448718
GF avg1.31.01.11.80.31.1
GA total714215813
GA avg2.33.53.01.32.71.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC WinterthurFC Lugano
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%100%71%100%
1.543%86%29%43%
2.50%71%14%29%
3.50%29%0%14%
4.50%14%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC WinterthurFC Lugano
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score022022

Penalties

MetricFC WinterthurFC Lugano
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricFC WinterthurFC Lugano
Wins01
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——3-1—
Biggest losses1-35-01-24-0
Goals For2231
Goals Against3524

Model comparison

MetricFC WinterthurFC Lugano
Form13%88%
Att42%58%
Def29%71%
Poisson Distribution79%21%
H2h7%93%
Goals38%62%
Total34.7%65.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or FC Lugano

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.42 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.05 @ Pinnacle
Away1.88 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.79 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.15 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ Pinnacle
No2.14 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): FC Winterthur = 1.85 (league 1.89), FC Lugano = 0.52 (league 1.32)

FC Lugano
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Winterthur 0 9.3% 4.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 17.2% 9.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 15.9% 8.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
3 9.9% 5.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 4.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 68.4% · Draw 20.7% · Away win 9.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1