Thu, Oct 30 2025 • 19:30 • Stadio di Cornaredo
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.18 (league 1.91) 1.51 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.5% 25.5% 44.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
0 - 1
10.3%
1 - 2
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
FC Luzern
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Lugano 0 6.8% 10.3% 7.8% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4%
1 8.0% 12.1% 9.1% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5%
2 4.7% 7.1% 5.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
3 1.9% 2.8% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC LuganoFC Luzern
Played55
Form67%40%
Attack53%59%
Defense65%41%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.810 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.210 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

90%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

85%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC Lugano FC Luzern
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins60%20%40%0%60%30%
Draws20%0%10%60%40%50%
Loses20%80%50%40%0%20%

Form: FC Lugano: LLWLLDWWWL • FC Luzern: WDLWDLWDDD

League goals

Metric FC Lugano FC Luzern
HATHAT
GF total861481018
GF avg1.61.21.41.62.01.8
GA total5121710717
GA avg1.02.41.72.01.41.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC LuganoFC Luzern
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%90%100%90%
1.530%50%60%70%
2.520%20%20%10%
3.510%10%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC LuganoFC Luzern
HATHAT
Clean sheets101011
Failed to score022000

Penalties

MetricFC LuganoFC Luzern
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricFC LuganoFC Luzern
Wins31
Draws11
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-12-4—2-3
Biggest losses1-24-01-2—
Goals For3433
Goals Against2432

Model comparison

MetricFC LuganoFC Luzern
Form63%38%
Att47%53%
Def63%38%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h80%20%
Goals73%27%
Total62.0%38.3%

Advice: Double chance : FC Lugano or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.91 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.90 @ Bet365
Away4.06 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.62 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.40 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ 188Bet
No2.55 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): FC Lugano = 1.18 (league 1.91), FC Luzern = 1.51 (league 1.33)

FC Luzern
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Lugano 0 6.8% 10.3% 7.8% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4%
1 8.0% 12.1% 9.1% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5%
2 4.7% 7.1% 5.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
3 1.9% 2.8% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.5% · Draw 25.5% · Away win 44.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1