Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 13:00 • St. Jakob-Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.02 (league 1.91) 0.72 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
74.4% 11.1% 5.9%
best score tips
3 - 0
10.9%
2 - 0
10.8%
4 - 0
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
FC Lugano
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Basel 1893 0 2.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 7.1% 5.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 10.8% 7.8% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.9% 7.9% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 8.2% 5.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 5.0% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC Basel 1893FC Lugano
Played55
Form67%80%
Attack69%77%
Defense62%62%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.810 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

92%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC Basel 1893 FC Lugano
HATHAT
Played57126511
Wins80%43%58%67%20%45%
Draws0%14%8%17%0%9%
Loses20%43%33%17%80%45%

Form: FC Basel 1893: LWWLWWLWWLWD • FC Lugano: LLWLLDWWWLW

League goals

Metric FC Basel 1893 FC Lugano
HATHAT
GF total12102210616
GF avg2.41.41.81.71.21.5
GA total4111551217
GA avg0.81.61.30.82.41.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC Basel 1893FC Lugano
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.592%58%82%82%
1.550%33%36%45%
2.533%17%18%18%
3.58%8%9%9%
4.50%8%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC Basel 1893FC Lugano
HATHAT
Clean sheets235202
Failed to score011022

Penalties

MetricFC Basel 1893FC Lugano
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total42

Streaks

MetricFC Basel 1893FC Lugano
Wins23
Draws01
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-33-12-4
Biggest losses1-25-11-24-0
Goals For4334
Goals Against2524

Model comparison

MetricFC Basel 1893FC Lugano
Form45%55%
Att47%53%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution82%18%
H2h50%50%
Goals55%45%
Total54.8%45.2%

Advice: Double chance : FC Basel 1893 or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.83 @ 188Bet
Draw4.17 @ Pinnacle
Away4.41 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.52 @ Superbet
Under 2.52.75 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ Pinnacle
No2.59 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): FC Basel 1893 = 3.02 (league 1.91), FC Lugano = 0.72 (league 1.33)

FC Lugano
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Basel 1893 0 2.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 7.1% 5.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 10.8% 7.8% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.9% 7.9% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 8.2% 5.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 5.0% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 74.4% · Draw 11.1% · Away win 5.9%

Vtot 7 , Vtod1