Sat, Nov 22 2025 • 19:30 • Stockhorn Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.10 (league 1.91) 1.08 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
58.6% 20.5% 18.8%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 1
9.4%
2 - 0
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
FC Lugano
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Thun 0 4.1% 4.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
1 8.7% 9.4% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
2 9.1% 9.9% 5.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 6.4% 6.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 3.4% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC ThunFC Lugano
Played55
Form100%80%
Attack63%56%
Defense88%75%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC Thun FC Lugano
HATHAT
Played67136612
Wins67%86%77%67%33%50%
Draws17%0%8%17%0%8%
Loses17%14%15%17%67%42%

Form: FC Thun: WWWWDLLWWWWWW • FC Lugano: LLWLLDWWWLWW

League goals

Metric FC Thun FC Lugano
HATHAT
GF total12142610717
GF avg2.02.02.01.71.21.4
GA total771451217
GA avg1.21.01.10.82.01.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC ThunFC Lugano
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%69%83%75%
1.569%15%33%42%
2.523%15%17%17%
3.58%8%8%8%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC ThunFC Lugano
HATHAT
Clean sheets134213
Failed to score000022

Penalties

MetricFC ThunFC Lugano
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricFC ThunFC Lugano
Wins43
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-43-12-4
Biggest losses1-34-21-24-0
Goals For3434
Goals Against3424

Model comparison

MetricFC ThunFC Lugano
Form56%44%
Att53%47%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution69%31%
H2h50%50%
Goals45%55%
Total56.7%43.3%

Advice: Double chance : FC Thun or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.57 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.65 @ 188Bet
Away2.70 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.66 @ SBO
Under 2.52.43 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ 188Bet
No2.75 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): FC Thun = 2.10 (league 1.91), FC Lugano = 1.08 (league 1.33)

FC Lugano
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Thun 0 4.1% 4.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
1 8.7% 9.4% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
2 9.1% 9.9% 5.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 6.4% 6.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 3.4% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 58.6% · Draw 20.5% · Away win 18.8%

Vtot 11 , Vtod1