Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 14:00 • Rugby Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.64 (league 1.57) 0.98 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.1% 34.2% 42.6%
best score tips
0 - 0
19.8%
0 - 1
19.4%
1 - 0
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
ST Mirren
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kilmarnock 0 19.8% 19.4% 9.6% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2%
1 12.6% 12.4% 6.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 4.0% 3.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricKilmarnockST Mirren
Played55
Form40%60%
Attack64%45%
Defense45%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Kilmarnock ST Mirren
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins0%33%17%33%33%33%
Draws67%67%67%67%33%50%
Loses33%0%17%0%33%17%

Form: Kilmarnock: DDDDLW • ST Mirren: LDDDWW

League goals

Metric Kilmarnock ST Mirren
HATHAT
GF total369235
GF avg1.02.01.50.71.00.8
GA total448134
GA avg1.31.31.30.31.00.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineKilmarnockST Mirren
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%67%67%67%
1.567%67%17%0%
2.50%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricKilmarnockST Mirren
HATHAT
Clean sheets112202
Failed to score101112

Penalties

MetricKilmarnockST Mirren
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricKilmarnockST Mirren
Wins00
Draws43
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins0-21-01-2
Biggest losses1-21-0
Goals For2212
Goals Against2211

Model comparison

MetricKilmarnockST Mirren
Form40%60%
Att58%42%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution42%58%
H2h62%38%
Goals47%53%
Total47.0%53.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or ST Mirren

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.90 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.40 @ 188Bet
Away2.60 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.09 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.84 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.86 @ 188Bet
No2.10 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Kilmarnock = 0.64 (league 1.57), ST Mirren = 0.98 (league 1.32)

ST Mirren
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kilmarnock 0 19.8% 19.4% 9.6% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2%
1 12.6% 12.4% 6.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 4.0% 3.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.1% · Draw 34.2% · Away win 42.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1