Sat, Oct 18 2025 • 16:45 • Rugby Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.83 (league 1.57) 1.74 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
17.5% 23.4% 58.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
13.3%
0 - 2
11.6%
1 - 1
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
Heart Of Midlothian
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kilmarnock 0 7.7% 13.3% 11.6% 6.7% 2.9% 1.0%
1 6.3% 11.0% 9.6% 5.6% 2.4% 0.8%
2 2.6% 4.6% 4.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%
3 0.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricKilmarnockHeart Of Midlothian
Played55
Form53%87%
Attack50%79%
Defense71%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.411 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

82%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Kilmarnock Heart Of Midlothian
HATHAT
Played437437
Wins25%33%29%75%100%86%
Draws50%67%57%25%0%14%
Loses25%0%14%0%0%0%

Form: Kilmarnock: DDDDLWW • Heart Of Midlothian: WWDWWWW

League goals

Metric Kilmarnock Heart Of Midlothian
HATHAT
GF total56119716
GF avg1.32.01.62.32.32.3
GA total448336
GA avg1.01.31.10.81.00.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineKilmarnockHeart Of Midlothian
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%57%100%43%
1.571%57%86%29%
2.50%0%43%14%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricKilmarnockHeart Of Midlothian
HATHAT
Clean sheets213314
Failed to score101000

Penalties

MetricKilmarnockHeart Of Midlothian
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricKilmarnockHeart Of Midlothian
Wins02
Draws41
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-23-00-2
Biggest losses1-2
Goals For2233
Goals Against2232

Model comparison

MetricKilmarnockHeart Of Midlothian
Form38%62%
Att39%61%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution31%69%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total43.0%57.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Heart Of Midlothian

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.57 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.66 @ Pinnacle
Away1.91 @ William Hill

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.81 @ Pinnacle
No2.05 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.93 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.02 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Kilmarnock = 0.83 (league 1.57), Heart Of Midlothian = 1.74 (league 1.32)

Heart Of Midlothian
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kilmarnock 0 7.7% 13.3% 11.6% 6.7% 2.9% 1.0%
1 6.3% 11.0% 9.6% 5.6% 2.4% 0.8%
2 2.6% 4.6% 4.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%
3 0.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 17.5% · Draw 23.4% · Away win 58.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1