Sat, Nov 22 2025 • 15:00 • Rugby Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.55) 1.52 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.9% 25.9% 54.7%
best score tips
0 - 1
15.3%
1 - 1
11.8%
0 - 2
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
Motherwell
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kilmarnock 0 10.1% 15.3% 11.7% 5.9% 2.3% 0.7%
1 7.8% 11.8% 9.0% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5%
2 3.0% 4.6% 3.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
3 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricKilmarnockMotherwell
Played55
Form0%47%
Attack14%57%
Defense0%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.48 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)14 | 2.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

77%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Kilmarnock Motherwell
HATHAT
Played66125611
Wins17%17%17%40%17%27%
Draws33%33%33%40%67%55%
Loses50%50%50%20%17%18%

Form: Kilmarnock: DDDDLWWLLLLL • Motherwell: DDDDDWLLWWD

League goals

Metric Kilmarnock Motherwell
HATHAT
GF total58138917
GF avg0.81.31.11.61.51.5
GA total814225914
GA avg1.32.31.81.01.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineKilmarnockMotherwell
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%75%91%73%
1.542%67%55%36%
2.50%33%9%18%
3.50%8%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricKilmarnockMotherwell
HATHAT
Clean sheets213213
Failed to score314011

Penalties

MetricKilmarnockMotherwell
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricKilmarnockMotherwell
Wins22
Draws45
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-22-01-2
Biggest losses0-34-01-23-2
Goals For2223
Goals Against3423

Model comparison

MetricKilmarnockMotherwell
Form0%100%
Att20%80%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution33%67%
H2h50%50%
Goals45%55%
Total36.2%63.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Motherwell

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.57 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.46 @ Pinnacle
Away2.20 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.97 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.98 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ Bet365
No2.14 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Kilmarnock = 0.77 (league 1.55), Motherwell = 1.52 (league 1.28)

Motherwell
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kilmarnock 0 10.1% 15.3% 11.7% 5.9% 2.3% 0.7%
1 7.8% 11.8% 9.0% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5%
2 3.0% 4.6% 3.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
3 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.9% · Draw 25.9% · Away win 54.7%

Vtot 5 , Vtod1