Tue, Feb 17 2026 • 19:45 • Cappielow Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.54 (league 1.33) 1.38 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
14.6% 27.9% 57.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
20.2%
0 - 0
14.7%
0 - 2
13.9%
Score & goals probability table
Dunfermline
0 1 2 3 4 5
Morton 0 14.7% 20.2% 13.9% 6.4% 2.2% 0.6%
1 8.0% 11.0% 7.5% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 2.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMortonDunfermline
Played55
Form40%47%
Attack100%100%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Morton Dunfermline
HATHAT
Played121224111122
Wins25%17%21%27%45%36%
Draws50%50%50%27%18%23%
Loses25%33%29%45%36%41%

Form: Morton: DDDDLDDDWDLLDWWLWLLDLDWD • Dunfermline: DWLDWLLLDWWLWDWLLDLWWL

League goals

Metric Morton Dunfermline
HATHAT
GF total101323121729
GF avg0.81.11.01.11.51.3
GA total131730141024
GA avg1.11.41.31.30.91.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMortonDunfermline
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%79%68%59%
1.525%21%41%41%
2.54%13%9%9%
3.50%8%9%0%
4.50%4%5%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMortonDunfermline
HATHAT
Clean sheets325459
Failed to score538437

Penalties

MetricMortonDunfermline
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricMortonDunfermline
Wins22
Draws41
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-32-00-5
Biggest losses0-45-00-22-0
Goals For2325
Goals Against4533

Model comparison

MetricMortonDunfermline
Form46%54%
Att50%50%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution29%71%
H2h50%50%
Goals63%38%
Total48.7%51.5%

Advice: Double chance : Morton or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.02 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.10 @ Bet365
Away2.48 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.36 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.01 @ 188Bet
No1.84 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Morton = 0.54 (league 1.33), Dunfermline = 1.38 (league 1.20)

Dunfermline
0 1 2 3 4 5
Morton 0 14.7% 20.2% 13.9% 6.4% 2.2% 0.6%
1 8.0% 11.0% 7.5% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 2.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 14.6% · Draw 27.9% · Away win 57.2%

vtt 5 , vtd1