Championship
— Scotland
Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:45 •
McDiarmid Park
Expected Goals
1.73 (league 1.34)
0.26 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.7% | 20.5% | 4.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
23.7%
2 - 0
20.5%
0 - 0
13.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Raith Rovers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| ST Johnstone | 0 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 23.7% | 6.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 20.5% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.8% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
ST Johnstone carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 140 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: ST Johnstone +28.5, Raith Rovers +12.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
ST Johnstone
vs
Raith Rovers
Elo gapST Johnstone +140
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo3167.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3167.2
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | ST Johnstone | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1636.2 | 1531 |
| Form Elo | 1661.3 | 1533.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1546.2 | 1484.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1647.8 | 1578.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1645.8 | 1564.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +28.5 | +12.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. ST Johnstone last-5 Elo change: +28.5; Raith Rovers last-5 Elo change: +12.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | ST Johnstone | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 60% |
| Attack | 92% | 75% |
| Defense | 75% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
54%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | ST Johnstone | Raith Rovers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 59% | 59% | 59% | 47% | 18% | 32% |
| Draws | 35% | 29% | 32% | 18% | 35% | 26% |
| Loses | 6% | 12% | 9% | 35% | 47% | 41% |
ST JohnstoneWWWDWWWWDDLWWDWLDWWDWLDWDDWWWDDWWW
Raith RoversDWWLWLDWLLLWDLLDDWDLDLWLDDLLWLWWWL
League goals
| Metric | ST Johnstone | Raith Rovers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 29 | 64 | 31 | 9 | 40 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 11 | 14 | 25 | 20 | 18 | 38 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | ST Johnstone | Raith Rovers | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 47% | 56% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 53% | 21% | 32% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 6% | 18% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | ST Johnstone | Raith Rovers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 9 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
Penalties
| Metric | ST Johnstone | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | ST Johnstone | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-4 | 6-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | ST Johnstone | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 84% | 16% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 83% | 17% |
| Total | 70.7% | 29.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.53 @ Betano
Draw4.09 @ Pinnacle
Away6.50 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.88 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.95 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.83 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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