League One
— Scotland
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
New Central Park
Expected Goals
0.57 (league 1.47)
1.78 (league 1.31)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 11.3% | 22.0% | 65.7% |
best score tips
0 - 1
16.9%
0 - 2
15.1%
1 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Cove Rangers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kelty Hearts | 0 | 9.5% | 16.9% | 15.1% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Cove Rangers carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kelty Hearts +23.8, Cove Rangers +6.9.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Kelty Hearts
vs
Cove Rangers
Elo gapCove Rangers +40
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo2911.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2911.2
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Kelty Hearts | Cove Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1417.9 | 1493.3 |
| Form Elo | 1433.4 | 1505 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1422.4 | 1497.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1386.5 | 1494.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1424 | 1568.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +23.8 | +6.9 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Kelty Hearts last-5 Elo change: +23.8; Cove Rangers last-5 Elo change: +6.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kelty Hearts | Cove Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 47% |
| Attack | 67% | 78% |
| Defense | 33% | 22% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
73%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kelty Hearts | Cove Rangers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 6% | 24% | 15% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| Draws | 41% | 24% | 32% | 35% | 24% | 29% |
| Loses | 53% | 53% | 53% | 41% | 53% | 47% |
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Cove RangersLLDLDLLLLLWLLWDDLWWDLDDLWDLWDDLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Kelty Hearts | Cove Rangers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 20 | 31 | 17 | 22 | 39 |
| GF avg | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 31 | 29 | 60 | 20 | 24 | 44 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kelty Hearts | Cove Rangers | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 88% | 56% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 24% | 53% | 32% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 26% | 18% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kelty Hearts | Cove Rangers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 9 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kelty Hearts | Cove Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kelty Hearts | Cove Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kelty Hearts | Cove Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 46% | 54% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 25% | 75% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 47.8% | 52.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.00 @ Betfair
Draw3.55 @ Dafabet
Away2.20 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ Bet365
No2.04 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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