League Two
— Scotland
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Ainslie Park
Expected Goals
1.27 (league 1.51)
0.90 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.9% | 28.7% | 26.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.5%
1 - 1
13.0%
0 - 0
11.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Elgin City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Spartans | 0 | 11.4% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.2% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Spartans carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 117 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Spartans +5.1, Elgin City -7.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Spartans
vs
Elgin City
Elo gapSpartans +117
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo3059.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3059.7
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Spartans | Elgin City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1570.8 | 1488.9 |
| Form Elo | 1578.9 | 1485.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1553.4 | 1487.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1570.5 | 1533.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1581 | 1391.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.1 | -7.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Spartans last-5 Elo change: +5.1; Elgin City last-5 Elo change: -7.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Spartans | Elgin City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Attack | 62% | 54% |
| Defense | 69% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
78%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Spartans | Elgin City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 53% | 53% | 53% | 47% | 18% | 32% |
| Draws | 18% | 29% | 24% | 18% | 41% | 29% |
| Loses | 29% | 18% | 24% | 35% | 41% | 38% |
SpartansWLWWWWLWLWWDDLDDWWWLWDDLWWLWWDDWLW
Elgin CityLLDLDWDLWLWWWDDLLLDDDLWWWLLDWWWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Spartans | Elgin City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 36 | 57 | 28 | 22 | 50 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 16 | 20 | 36 | 25 | 28 | 53 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Spartans | Elgin City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 65% | 82% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 26% | 50% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 12% | 15% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Spartans | Elgin City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Spartans | Elgin City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Spartans | Elgin City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-6 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-0 | 1-6 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Spartans | Elgin City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 59% | 41% |
| Total | 60.3% | 39.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.70 @ Unibet
Draw4.00 @ Betfair
Away5.00 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.68 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.35 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ Bet365
No2.15 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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