HNL — Croatia
Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 13:45 • Gradski stadion Velika Gorica
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.24 (league 1.37) 1.31 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
34.9% 26.7% 38.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.7%
0 - 1
10.2%
1 - 0
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
HNK Rijeka
0 1 2 3 4 5
HNK Gorica 0 7.8% 10.2% 6.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
1 9.7% 12.7% 8.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.0% 7.9% 5.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
3 2.5% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHNK GoricaHNK Rijeka
Played55
Form47%20%
Attack55%55%
Defense45%27%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 6 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric HNK Gorica HNK Rijeka
HATHAT
Played268538
Wins50%33%38%20%0%13%
Draws0%33%25%40%67%50%
Loses50%33%38%40%33%38%

Form: HNK Gorica: DLWDLWWL • HNK Rijeka: WDLLDDLD

League goals

Metric HNK Gorica HNK Rijeka
HATHAT
GF total2810448
GF avg1.01.31.30.81.31.0
GA total28105510
GA avg1.01.31.31.01.71.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHNK GoricaHNK Rijeka
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%100%63%63%
1.550%25%38%50%
2.513%0%0%13%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHNK GoricaHNK Rijeka
HATHAT
Clean sheets000213
Failed to score123213

Penalties

MetricHNK GoricaHNK Rijeka
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricHNK GoricaHNK Rijeka
Wins21
Draws12
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-32-0—
Biggest losses0-12-00-23-2
Goals For2322
Goals Against1223

Model comparison

MetricHNK GoricaHNK Rijeka
Form70%30%
Att50%50%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h7%93%
Goals13%88%
Total40.5%59.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or HNK Rijeka

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.44 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.25 @ Bet365
Away2.30 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.43 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.65 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.05 @ Pinnacle
No1.81 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): HNK Gorica = 1.24 (league 1.37), HNK Rijeka = 1.31 (league 0.99)

HNK Rijeka
0 1 2 3 4 5
HNK Gorica 0 7.8% 10.2% 6.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
1 9.7% 12.7% 8.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.0% 7.9% 5.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
3 2.5% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 34.9% · Draw 26.7% · Away win 38.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1