HNL — Croatia
Sun, Nov 23 2025 • 17:15 • Gradski stadion Velika Gorica
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.46 (league 1.44) 1.52 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.1% 24.4% 38.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.3%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
Istra 1961
0 1 2 3 4 5
HNK Gorica 0 5.1% 7.7% 5.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
1 7.4% 11.3% 8.6% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.4% 8.2% 6.3% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4%
3 2.6% 4.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHNK GoricaIstra 1961
Played55
Form27%67%
Attack44%33%
Defense39%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric HNK Gorica Istra 1961
HATHAT
Played76137613
Wins29%33%31%57%17%38%
Draws14%33%23%29%33%31%
Loses57%33%46%14%50%31%

Form: HNK Gorica: DLWDLWWLLLLWD • Istra 1961: LDDLWLWDWLWDW

League goals

Metric HNK Gorica Istra 1961
HATHAT
GF total108189514
GF avg1.41.31.41.30.81.1
GA total138218917
GA avg1.91.31.61.11.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHNK GoricaIstra 1961
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%100%77%77%
1.538%38%31%38%
2.515%23%0%15%
3.58%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHNK GoricaIstra 1961
HATHAT
Clean sheets000213
Failed to score123123

Penalties

MetricHNK GoricaIstra 1961
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricHNK GoricaIstra 1961
Wins21
Draws12
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-32-11-2
Biggest losses1-32-00-33-0
Goals For4322
Goals Against3233

Model comparison

MetricHNK GoricaIstra 1961
Form29%71%
Att57%43%
Def35%65%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total45.0%55.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Istra 1961

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.45 @ William Hill
Draw3.25 @ 188Bet
Away3.02 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.14 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.77 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.84 @ Unibet
No2.02 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): HNK Gorica = 1.46 (league 1.44), Istra 1961 = 1.52 (league 1.00)

Istra 1961
0 1 2 3 4 5
HNK Gorica 0 5.1% 7.7% 5.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
1 7.4% 11.3% 8.6% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.4% 8.2% 6.3% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4%
3 2.6% 4.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.1% · Draw 24.4% · Away win 38.6%

Vtot 15 , Vtod1