Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:30 •
Stadion Z'dežele
Expected Goals
2.53 (league 1.68)
0.51 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 76.9% | 13.2% | 5.5% |
best score tips
2 - 0
15.3%
3 - 0
12.9%
1 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Aluminij | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Celje | 0 | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.3% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 12.9% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Celje carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 226 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Celje +32.1, Aluminij -22.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Celje
vs
Aluminij
Elo gapCelje +226
Home / draw / away65% / 18% / 17%
Expected home share79%
Combined Elo3201.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3201.2
Elo home share
79%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Celje | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1695.9 | 1505.3 |
| Form Elo | 1705.4 | 1488.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1573.1 | 1517.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1849.6 | 1640.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1627.3 | 1506.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +32.1 | -22.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Celje last-5 Elo change: +32.1; Aluminij last-5 Elo change: -22.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Celje | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 27% |
| Attack | 100% | 45% |
| Defense | 82% | 36% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Celje | Aluminij | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 16 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| Wins | 79% | 63% | 70% | 31% | 36% | 33% |
| Draws | 21% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 17% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 13% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
CeljeWWWWWWWDWWWDLWDWDWDWLWLLWWWWWW
AluminijWLDWLWWLLWDDLLWLDWLLWLWLLDLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Celje | Aluminij | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 38 | 73 | 22 | 20 | 42 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 7 | 20 | 27 | 28 | 24 | 52 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Celje | Aluminij | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 57% | 87% | 87% |
| 1.5 | 70% | 23% | 43% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 10% | 10% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Celje | Aluminij | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Celje | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | Celje | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Celje | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 79% | 21% |
| Att | 72% | 28% |
| Def | 78% | 22% |
| Poisson Distribution | 84% | 16% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 74.0% | 26.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.26 @ Betano
Draw6.44 @ Pinnacle
Away10.25 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.36 @ 10Bet
Under 2.53.10 @ BetVictor
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.70 @ Betano
No2.10 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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