Sat, May 2 2026 • 18:15 •
Stadion Z'dežele
Expected Goals
2.38 (league 1.70)
0.69 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 71.5% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
best score tips
2 - 0
13.1%
1 - 0
11.1%
3 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Bravo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Celje | 0 | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Celje carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 142 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Celje +33.9, Bravo +33.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Celje
vs
Bravo
Elo gapCelje +142
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo3297.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3297.9
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Celje | Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1702.4 | 1595.5 |
| Form Elo | 1719.1 | 1630.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1580.9 | 1541 |
| Attack Elo | 1881.3 | 1613.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1642.1 | 1545.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +33.9 | +33.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Celje last-5 Elo change: +33.9; Bravo last-5 Elo change: +33.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Celje | Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 87% |
| Attack | 68% | 47% |
| Defense | 95% | 84% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Celje | Bravo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 31 |
| Wins | 80% | 63% | 71% | 53% | 50% | 52% |
| Draws | 20% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 19% | 16% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 13% | 33% | 31% | 32% |
CeljeWWWWWWWDWWWDLWDWDWDWLWLLWWWWWWW
BravoLWWLDLWDWWDWWLDLLWLLLWLWWWDWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Celje | Bravo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 40 | 38 | 78 | 24 | 31 | 55 |
| GF avg | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 7 | 20 | 27 | 23 | 24 | 47 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Celje | Bravo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 55% | 81% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 71% | 23% | 58% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 10% | 26% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 0% | 6% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 16% | 0% | 3% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Celje | Bravo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Celje | Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Celje | Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-5 | 3-0 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-5 | 6-2 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Celje | Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 59% | 41% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 64% | 36% |
| Total | 63.5% | 36.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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