Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Stadion Strelnice
Expected Goals
1.50 (league 1.40)
1.21 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.5% | 25.4% | 30.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
10.0%
2 - 1
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Slovan Liberec | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FK Jablonec | 0 | 6.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 12.1% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
FK Jablonec carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 95 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: FK Jablonec -22.0, Slovan Liberec -12.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
FK Jablonec
vs
Slovan Liberec
Elo gapFK Jablonec +95
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo3209.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3209.3
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | FK Jablonec | Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1634.4 | 1574.9 |
| Form Elo | 1621.8 | 1561.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1572.5 | 1533.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1634.8 | 1579.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1603.2 | 1626.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.0 | -12.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. FK Jablonec last-5 Elo change: -22.0; Slovan Liberec last-5 Elo change: -12.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | FK Jablonec | Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 40% |
| Attack | 56% | 25% |
| Defense | 50% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | FK Jablonec | Slovan Liberec | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 50% | 53% | 52% | 47% | 29% | 38% |
| Draws | 36% | 7% | 21% | 33% | 36% | 34% |
| Loses | 14% | 40% | 28% | 20% | 36% | 28% |
FK JablonecDDWWDWWWWWLDWLWDLWLWDWWLLLWWL
Slovan LiberecDWLWLLDWDWDDLWWWWDDWLWLLDDWLD
League goals
| Metric | FK Jablonec | Slovan Liberec | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 19 | 40 | 19 | 22 | 41 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 13 | 18 | 31 | 10 | 19 | 29 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | FK Jablonec | Slovan Liberec | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 52% | 72% | 62% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 34% | 38% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 17% | 17% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 7% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | FK Jablonec | Slovan Liberec | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | FK Jablonec | Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | FK Jablonec | Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-3 | 6-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | FK Jablonec | Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 55% | 45% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 73% | 27% |
| Total | 60.0% | 40.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.28 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.42 @ Pinnacle
Away3.20 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.95 @ Betano
Under 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ William Hill
No2.10 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…