Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty
Expected Goals
1.18 (league 1.40)
0.47 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.6% | 31.4% | 14.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
22.6%
0 - 0
19.2%
2 - 0
13.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Dukla Praha | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Slovácko | 0 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.3% | 6.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Slovácko carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 35 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Slovácko -30.8, Dukla Praha -0.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Slovácko
vs
Dukla Praha
Elo gapSlovácko +35
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2936.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2936.8
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Slovácko | Dukla Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1468.2 | 1468.6 |
| Form Elo | 1460.6 | 1455.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1473.6 | 1482 |
| Attack Elo | 1431.4 | 1373.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1481.3 | 1552.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -30.8 | -0.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Slovácko last-5 Elo change: -30.8; Dukla Praha last-5 Elo change: -0.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Slovácko | Dukla Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 33% |
| Attack | 44% | 25% |
| Defense | 13% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
63%
FT probability
2.5+
44%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Slovácko | Dukla Praha | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 29% | 7% | 17% | 20% | 0% | 10% |
| Draws | 21% | 33% | 28% | 33% | 43% | 38% |
| Loses | 50% | 60% | 55% | 47% | 57% | 52% |
SlováckoLDLDWLLLDLDDLLLWLWLDDLWWDLLLL
Dukla PrahaLDDLWLDDLLLDWDLDLDLLLDLLDWLDL
League goals
| Metric | Slovácko | Dukla Praha | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 9 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| GA total | 19 | 24 | 43 | 20 | 21 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Slovácko | Dukla Praha | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 55% | 76% | 48% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 45% | 14% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 17% | 0% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Slovácko | Dukla Praha | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
Penalties
| Metric | Slovácko | Dukla Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Slovácko | Dukla Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Slovácko | Dukla Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 26% | 74% |
| Poisson Distribution | 72% | 28% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 46.5% | 53.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.07 @ Dafabet
Draw3.32 @ Pinnacle
Away4.35 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.95 @ Unibet
No1.82 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.22 @ Betano
Under 2.51.70 @ Betano
📊
League standings
Loading standings…