Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 11:30 • Stadium MK
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.16 (league 1.38) 1.69 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.0% 24.1% 49.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.4%
0 - 1
9.8%
1 - 2
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
Gillingham
0 1 2 3 4 5
Milton Keynes Dons 0 5.8% 9.8% 8.3% 4.7% 2.0% 0.7%
1 6.7% 11.4% 9.6% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8%
2 3.9% 6.6% 5.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
3 1.5% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMilton Keynes DonsGillingham
Played55
Form27%67%
Attack33%39%
Defense56%78%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Milton Keynes Dons Gillingham
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins20%60%40%80%40%60%
Draws20%40%30%0%60%30%
Loses60%0%30%20%0%10%

Form: Milton Keynes Dons: DWWDWLLDLW • Gillingham: DWDWWWDWWL

League goals

Metric Milton Keynes Dons Gillingham
HATHAT
GF total88167815
GF avg1.61.61.61.41.61.5
GA total6410257
GA avg1.20.81.00.41.00.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMilton Keynes DonsGillingham
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%70%90%60%
1.550%20%30%10%
2.510%10%20%0%
3.510%0%10%0%
4.510%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMilton Keynes DonsGillingham
HATHAT
Clean sheets213314
Failed to score202101

Penalties

MetricMilton Keynes DonsGillingham
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total14

Streaks

MetricMilton Keynes DonsGillingham
Wins23
Draws11
Losses20

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-00-24-11-3
Biggest losses2-30-1
Goals For5243
Goals Against3112

Model comparison

MetricMilton Keynes DonsGillingham
Form29%71%
Att46%54%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution42%58%
H2h29%71%
Goals38%63%
Total36.2%64.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Gillingham

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.11 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.46 @ Marathonbet
Away3.75 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.18 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.73 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.98 @ Pinnacle
No1.87 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Milton Keynes Dons = 1.16 (league 1.38), Gillingham = 1.69 (league 1.14)

Gillingham
0 1 2 3 4 5
Milton Keynes Dons 0 5.8% 9.8% 8.3% 4.7% 2.0% 0.7%
1 6.7% 11.4% 9.6% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8%
2 3.9% 6.6% 5.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
3 1.5% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.0% · Draw 24.1% · Away win 49.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1