League Two — England
Tue, Feb 17 2026 • 19:45 • SMH Group Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.51 (league 1.35) 1.16 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
44.7% 25.5% 29.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
10.4%
2 - 1
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
Gillingham
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chesterfield 0 6.9% 8.1% 4.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
1 10.4% 12.1% 7.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.9% 9.1% 5.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
3 4.0% 4.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricChesterfieldGillingham
Played55
Form53%40%
Attack80%60%
Defense30%30%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Chesterfield Gillingham
HATHAT
Played151631151530
Wins40%38%39%40%27%33%
Draws47%38%42%40%33%37%
Loses13%25%19%20%40%30%

Form: Chesterfield: WWWLWDLDDWLWDDDWDLDWWWLDDDLWDWD • Gillingham: DWDWWWDWWLLDLLWDDDDDLDDLWWLLWL

League goals

Metric Chesterfield Gillingham
HATHAT
GF total262450221840
GF avg1.71.51.61.51.21.3
GA total162642191837
GA avg1.11.61.41.31.21.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineChesterfieldGillingham
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%74%80%77%
1.548%35%33%33%
2.519%13%17%10%
3.53%6%3%3%
4.50%3%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricChesterfieldGillingham
HATHAT
Clean sheets448347
Failed to score213156

Penalties

MetricChesterfieldGillingham
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%8 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total08

Streaks

MetricChesterfieldGillingham
Wins33
Draws35
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-24-10-3
Biggest losses1-26-21-42-0
Goals For4343
Goals Against3643

Model comparison

MetricChesterfieldGillingham
Form57%43%
Att57%43%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h25%75%
Goals38%63%
Total47.7%52.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Gillingham

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.23 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.46 @ Pinnacle
Away3.21 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.95 @ SBO
Under 2.52.01 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ William Hill
No2.17 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Chesterfield = 1.51 (league 1.35), Gillingham = 1.16 (league 1.14)

Gillingham
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chesterfield 0 6.9% 8.1% 4.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
1 10.4% 12.1% 7.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.9% 9.1% 5.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
3 4.0% 4.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.7% · Draw 25.5% · Away win 29.1%

vtt 3 , vtd1