League Two
— England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The Wham Stadium
Expected Goals
1.36 (league 1.37)
0.66 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.6% | 28.1% | 18.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.1%
0 - 0
13.3%
2 - 0
12.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Crawley Town | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Accrington ST | 0 | 13.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.3% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Accrington ST carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 76 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Accrington ST -12.5, Crawley Town +6.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Accrington ST
vs
Crawley Town
Elo gapAccrington ST +76
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2856.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2856.8
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Accrington ST | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1448.7 | 1408.1 |
| Form Elo | 1426.5 | 1408.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1476.7 | 1438.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1414.3 | 1435.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1516.9 | 1446.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.5 | +6.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Accrington ST last-5 Elo change: -12.5; Crawley Town last-5 Elo change: +6.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Accrington ST | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 38% | 31% |
| Defense | 50% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Accrington ST | Crawley Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 41% | 23% | 32% | 23% | 14% | 18% |
| Draws | 18% | 27% | 23% | 41% | 23% | 32% |
| Loses | 41% | 50% | 45% | 36% | 64% | 50% |
Accrington STDLLDDLWWLLLWLDDWDWWLLWWWLDWWWLWLLLDDLLLWLLLD
Crawley TownLLLDLDWWLLLDLWWDDLLDLDLLLLWDWLLLDDLDDDLWWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Accrington ST | Crawley Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 20 | 44 | 26 | 15 | 41 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 24 | 28 | 52 | 28 | 37 | 65 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Accrington ST | Crawley Town | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 73% | 61% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 23% | 36% | 25% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 7% | 5% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Accrington ST | Crawley Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 17 |
Penalties
| Metric | Accrington ST | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Accrington ST | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-4 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 2-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Accrington ST | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 45.7% | 54.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.20 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.50 @ Betfair
Away2.28 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.00 @ 888Sport
Under 2.51.87 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.02 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…