League Two
— England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
SMH Group Stadium
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.35)
1.31 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.1% | 24.8% | 32.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.7%
2 - 1
9.0%
1 - 0
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Crewe | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chesterfield | 0 | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.8% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Chesterfield carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 67 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chesterfield +19.6, Crewe -13.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Chesterfield
vs
Crewe
Elo gapChesterfield +67
Home / draw / away46% / 22% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3068.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3068.3
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Chesterfield | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1550 | 1518.3 |
| Form Elo | 1562.3 | 1506.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1521.3 | 1514.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1534.3 | 1607.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1476.9 | 1501.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +19.6 | -13.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Chesterfield last-5 Elo change: +19.6; Crewe last-5 Elo change: -13.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chesterfield | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 40% |
| Attack | 46% | 46% |
| Defense | 77% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chesterfield | Crewe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 45% | 41% | 43% | 55% | 32% | 43% |
| Draws | 36% | 36% | 36% | 18% | 23% | 20% |
| Loses | 18% | 23% | 20% | 27% | 45% | 36% |
ChesterfieldWWWLWDLDDWLWDDDWDLDWWWLDDDLWDWDWDLWLWLWWWDWD
CreweWWWWLLDLLWWLLWWDDLDWDLLWDWLDWDWWLWWLLDWWLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Chesterfield | Crewe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 36 | 31 | 67 | 34 | 30 | 64 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 24 | 31 | 55 | 28 | 28 | 56 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chesterfield | Crewe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 70% | 75% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 32% | 41% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 14% | 20% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 5% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chesterfield | Crewe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chesterfield | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chesterfield | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 6-2 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chesterfield | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 65% | 35% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 52.5% | 47.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.64 @ Dafabet
Draw4.21 @ Pinnacle
Away5.40 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.67 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.20 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.70 @ Betano
No2.15 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…