League Two
— England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Stadium MK
Expected Goals
2.26 (league 1.35)
1.15 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 59.6% | 19.4% | 18.2% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.7%
1 - 1
8.6%
2 - 0
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Tranmere | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Milton Keynes Dons | 0 | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Milton Keynes Dons carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 250 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Milton Keynes Dons +8.0, Tranmere -0.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Milton Keynes Dons
vs
Tranmere
Elo gapMilton Keynes Dons +250
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share81%
Combined Elo2974.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2974.7
Elo home share
81%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1594.6 | 1380.1 |
| Form Elo | 1607.5 | 1366.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1520.1 | 1482.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1610.7 | 1437.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1555 | 1384.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.0 | -0.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Milton Keynes Dons last-5 Elo change: +8.0; Tranmere last-5 Elo change: -0.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 27% |
| Attack | 43% | 36% |
| Defense | 71% | 57% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Tranmere | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 55% | 50% | 52% | 18% | 27% | 23% |
| Draws | 27% | 32% | 30% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| Loses | 18% | 18% | 18% | 59% | 50% | 55% |
Milton Keynes DonsDWWDWLLDLWWWWLDWDWLDWWDLDWWWDWWDWDWWWWLLDDWW
TranmereDWDWLLDLDDLWDDLWDWWLLWLWLLLLLLWLLLLLDLLLLDLW
League goals
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Tranmere | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 38 | 44 | 82 | 21 | 32 | 53 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 20 | 24 | 44 | 36 | 39 | 75 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Milton Keynes Dons | Tranmere | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 68% | 73% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 25% | 30% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 7% | 14% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 0% | 5% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Tranmere | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-5 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-2 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 63.8% | 36.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.42 @ Betano
Draw4.90 @ Dafabet
Away8.50 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.78 @ Betano
Under 2.52.10 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Betfair
No1.80 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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