League Two
— England
Sat, May 2 2026 • 14:00 •
Whaddon Road
Expected Goals
0.96 (league 1.37)
1.11 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.1% | 30.1% | 38.7% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.0%
1 - 1
13.4%
0 - 0
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Colchester | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cheltenham | 0 | 12.6% | 14.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 13.4% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 5.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Cheltenham +3.5, Colchester +5.0.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Cheltenham
vs
Colchester
Elo gapColchester +6
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo2971.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2971.8
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Cheltenham | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1465.2 | 1506.6 |
| Form Elo | 1463.4 | 1494 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1485.2 | 1507.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1487.3 | 1490.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1391.2 | 1597.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.5 | +5.0 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Cheltenham last-5 Elo change: +3.5; Colchester last-5 Elo change: +5.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cheltenham | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 60% |
| Attack | 57% | 43% |
| Defense | 43% | 79% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cheltenham | Colchester | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 41% | 22% | 31% | 43% | 32% | 38% |
| Draws | 18% | 26% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 27% |
| Loses | 41% | 52% | 47% | 30% | 41% | 36% |
CheltenhamLLLLLDWLLLWDWWLLWLWDWWLLWLLLLDDWDDDWDLLDWWWLL
ColchesterDDWLLDDLDLWWWDLWWWDLWDDWWWLLWLDWLLWDLLDLWWWLL
League goals
| Metric | Cheltenham | Colchester | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 25 | 52 | 35 | 23 | 58 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 29 | 46 | 75 | 23 | 25 | 48 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cheltenham | Colchester | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 76% | 67% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 22% | 16% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 11% | 7% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 2% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cheltenham | Colchester | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 15 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cheltenham | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cheltenham | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-4 | 6-2 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 7-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cheltenham | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 27% | 73% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 48.5% | 51.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.10 @ 10Bet
Draw3.57 @ Pinnacle
Away2.20 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.95 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.86 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ Betano
No2.02 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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