League Two
— England
Sat, May 2 2026 • 14:00 •
County Ground
Expected Goals
1.73 (league 1.37)
1.31 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.4% | 23.5% | 28.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.8%
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 0
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Chesterfield | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Swindon Town | 0 | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Swindon Town carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 37 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Swindon Town -23.8, Chesterfield +21.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Swindon Town
vs
Chesterfield
Elo gapSwindon Town +37
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3120.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3120.6
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Swindon Town | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1561.3 | 1559.3 |
| Form Elo | 1546.2 | 1573.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1539.3 | 1518.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1629.8 | 1538.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1533.9 | 1490.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -23.8 | +21.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Swindon Town last-5 Elo change: -23.8; Chesterfield last-5 Elo change: +21.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Swindon Town | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 73% |
| Attack | 36% | 50% |
| Defense | 21% | 79% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Swindon Town | Chesterfield | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 50% | 48% | 49% | 48% | 41% | 44% |
| Draws | 27% | 13% | 20% | 35% | 36% | 36% |
| Loses | 23% | 39% | 31% | 17% | 23% | 20% |
Swindon TownLWWLWWWWLWWLDDWDDWLWWLWWLLLWWWWLWLDDLWWDDWLDL
ChesterfieldWWWLWDLDDWLWDDDWDLDWWWLDDDLWDWDWDLWLWLWWWDWDW
League goals
| Metric | Swindon Town | Chesterfield | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 37 | 32 | 69 | 38 | 31 | 69 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 25 | 32 | 57 | 24 | 31 | 55 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Swindon Town | Chesterfield | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 84% | 71% | 89% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 53% | 38% | 44% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 13% | 18% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Swindon Town | Chesterfield | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Swindon Town | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Swindon Town | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 6-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Swindon Town | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 21% | 79% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 54% | 46% |
| Total | 44.3% | 55.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.75 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.64 @ Pinnacle
Away2.50 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.73 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.10 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.62 @ William Hill
No2.23 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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