Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 14:00 • St. Mary's Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.73 (league 1.37) 2.04 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
12.2% 19.7% 66.3%
best score tips
0 - 2
13.1%
0 - 1
12.8%
1 - 2
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Middlesbrough
0 1 2 3 4 5
Southampton 0 6.3% 12.8% 13.1% 8.9% 4.5% 1.9%
1 4.6% 9.3% 9.5% 6.5% 3.3% 1.3%
2 1.7% 3.4% 3.5% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5%
3 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSouthamptonMiddlesbrough
Played55
Form20%87%
Attack50%100%
Defense20%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 110 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

75%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Southampton Middlesbrough
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins33%0%17%100%67%83%
Draws33%67%50%0%33%17%
Loses33%33%33%0%0%0%

Form: Southampton: WDLDDL • Middlesbrough: WWWWDW

League goals

Metric Southampton Middlesbrough
HATHAT
GF total3474711
GF avg1.01.31.21.32.31.8
GA total369134
GA avg1.02.01.50.31.00.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSouthamptonMiddlesbrough
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%83%100%50%
1.533%50%67%17%
2.50%17%17%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSouthamptonMiddlesbrough
HATHAT
Clean sheets101213
Failed to score101000

Penalties

MetricSouthamptonMiddlesbrough
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricSouthamptonMiddlesbrough
Wins14
Draws21
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—2-10-3
Biggest losses1-23-1——
Goals For2223
Goals Against2312

Model comparison

MetricSouthamptonMiddlesbrough
Form19%81%
Att33%67%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution30%70%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total35.8%64.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Middlesbrough

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.40 @ 1xBet
Draw3.55 @ 188Bet
Away3.30 @ Superbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.98 @ SBO
Under 2.52.01 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.72 @ Pinnacle
No2.19 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Southampton = 0.73 (league 1.37), Middlesbrough = 2.04 (league 1.13)

Middlesbrough
0 1 2 3 4 5
Southampton 0 6.3% 12.8% 13.1% 8.9% 4.5% 1.9%
1 4.6% 9.3% 9.5% 6.5% 3.3% 1.3%
2 1.7% 3.4% 3.5% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5%
3 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.2% · Draw 19.7% · Away win 66.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1