Tue, Sep 30 2025 • 18:45 • Riverside Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.31) 0.46 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.2% 42.4% 21.4%
best score tips
0 - 0
31.5%
1 - 0
21.8%
0 - 1
14.5%
Score & goals probability table
Stoke City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Middlesbrough 0 31.5% 14.5% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.8% 10.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 7.6% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMiddlesbroughStoke City
Played55
Form73%47%
Attack89%44%
Defense44%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.64 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Middlesbrough Stoke City
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins100%50%71%50%67%57%
Draws0%50%29%25%0%14%
Loses0%0%0%25%33%29%

Form: Middlesbrough: WWWWDWD • Stoke City: WWWLWLD

League goals

Metric Middlesbrough Stoke City
HATHAT
GF total48125510
GF avg1.32.01.71.31.71.4
GA total145325
GA avg0.31.00.70.80.70.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMiddlesbroughStoke City
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%57%71%71%
1.557%14%43%0%
2.514%0%29%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMiddlesbroughStoke City
HATHAT
Clean sheets213112
Failed to score000112

Penalties

MetricMiddlesbroughStoke City
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricMiddlesbroughStoke City
Wins43
Draws10
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-33-10-3
Biggest losses0-11-0
Goals For2333
Goals Against1211

Model comparison

MetricMiddlesbroughStoke City
Form61%39%
Att67%33%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h40%60%
Goals33%67%
Total51.0%49.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Middlesbrough or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.87 @ 10Bet
Draw3.61 @ Pinnacle
Away4.60 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.11 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.84 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ 188Bet
No1.91 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Middlesbrough = 0.69 (league 1.31), Stoke City = 0.46 (league 1.10)

Stoke City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Middlesbrough 0 31.5% 14.5% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.8% 10.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 7.6% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.2% · Draw 42.4% · Away win 21.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1