Tue, Sep 30 2025 • 19:00 • Pride Park
Match Finished
1 - 1
Expected Goals
0.99 (league 1.31) 1.48 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.4% 26.2% 47.9%
best score tips
0 - 1
12.5%
1 - 1
12.4%
0 - 2
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
Charlton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 8.5% 12.5% 9.2% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
1 8.4% 12.4% 9.2% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
2 4.2% 6.2% 4.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2%
3 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyCharlton
Played55
Form40%47%
Attack56%67%
Defense44%44%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Charlton
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins0%25%14%50%33%43%
Draws33%50%43%25%33%29%
Loses67%25%43%25%33%29%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLD • Charlton: WDLLDWW

League goals

Metric Derby Charlton
HATHAT
GF total459527
GF avg1.31.31.31.30.71.0
GA total7613235
GA avg2.31.51.90.51.00.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyCharlton
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%86%71%43%
1.529%43%14%14%
2.514%29%14%14%
3.50%14%0%0%
4.50%14%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyCharlton
HATHAT
Clean sheets011224
Failed to score101112

Penalties

MetricDerbyCharlton
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricDerbyCharlton
Wins11
Draws21
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-13-00-1
Biggest losses3-53-10-13-1
Goals For3231
Goals Against5313

Model comparison

MetricDerbyCharlton
Form46%54%
Att45%55%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h60%40%
Goals60%40%
Total51.2%48.8%

Advice: Double chance : Derby or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.85 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away2.75 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.75 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.50 @ Marathonbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.31 @ 188Bet
No1.73 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 0.99 (league 1.31), Charlton = 1.48 (league 1.09)

Charlton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 8.5% 12.5% 9.2% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
1 8.4% 12.4% 9.2% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
2 4.2% 6.2% 4.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2%
3 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.4% · Draw 26.2% · Away win 47.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1