Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 14:00 • Pride Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.79 (league 1.31) 2.73 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.5% 17.7% 51.9%
best score tips
1 - 2
7.3%
1 - 3
6.6%
2 - 2
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
Southampton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 1.1% 3.0% 4.0% 3.7% 2.5% 1.4%
1 2.0% 5.3% 7.3% 6.6% 4.5% 2.5%
2 1.7% 4.8% 6.5% 5.9% 4.0% 2.2%
3 1.0% 2.9% 3.9% 3.5% 2.4% 1.3%
4 0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6%
5 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbySouthampton
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack45%55%
Defense55%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

85%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Southampton
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins0%25%13%25%25%25%
Draws50%50%50%50%50%50%
Loses50%25%38%25%25%25%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDD • Southampton: WDLDDLDW

League goals

Metric Derby Southampton
HATHAT
GF total55104610
GF avg1.31.31.31.01.51.3
GA total86144711
GA avg2.01.51.81.01.81.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbySouthampton
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%88%88%88%
1.525%38%38%38%
2.513%25%0%13%
3.50%13%0%0%
4.50%13%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbySouthampton
HATHAT
Clean sheets011101
Failed to score101101

Penalties

MetricDerbySouthampton
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricDerbySouthampton
Wins11
Draws22
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins0-12-11-2
Biggest losses3-53-11-23-1
Goals For3222
Goals Against5323

Model comparison

MetricDerbySouthampton
Form50%50%
Att45%55%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h33%67%
Goals36%64%
Total44.2%55.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Southampton

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.55 @ Unibet
Draw3.36 @ Pinnacle
Away2.27 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.30 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.70 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.07 @ 188Bet
No1.89 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.79 (league 1.31), Southampton = 2.73 (league 1.10)

Southampton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 1.1% 3.0% 4.0% 3.7% 2.5% 1.4%
1 2.0% 5.3% 7.3% 6.6% 4.5% 2.5%
2 1.7% 4.8% 6.5% 5.9% 4.0% 2.2%
3 1.0% 2.9% 3.9% 3.5% 2.4% 1.3%
4 0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6%
5 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.5% · Draw 17.7% · Away win 51.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1