Sat, Oct 18 2025 • 11:30 • Kassam Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.14 (league 1.31) 1.78 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.3% 23.3% 51.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 1
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
Derby
0 1 2 3 4 5
Oxford United 0 5.4% 9.6% 8.5% 5.0% 2.2% 0.8%
1 6.2% 11.0% 9.7% 5.8% 2.6% 0.9%
2 3.5% 6.3% 5.6% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5%
3 1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricOxford UnitedDerby
Played55
Form33%40%
Attack38%25%
Defense63%75%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Oxford United Derby
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins0%20%11%0%25%11%
Draws50%20%33%60%50%56%
Loses50%60%56%40%25%33%

Form: Oxford United: LLLDDWLDL • Derby: LLDDWLDDD

League goals

Metric Oxford United Derby
HATHAT
GF total46106511
GF avg1.01.21.11.21.31.2
GA total67139615
GA avg1.51.41.41.81.51.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineOxford UnitedDerby
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.556%89%89%89%
1.544%44%22%33%
2.511%11%11%22%
3.50%0%0%11%
4.50%0%0%11%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricOxford UnitedDerby
HATHAT
Clean sheets011011
Failed to score224101

Penalties

MetricOxford UnitedDerby
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricOxford UnitedDerby
Wins11
Draws22
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-30-1
Biggest losses0-13-23-53-1
Goals For2332
Goals Against2353

Model comparison

MetricOxford UnitedDerby
Form45%55%
Att60%40%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h38%62%
Goals47%53%
Total45.8%54.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Derby

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.63 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ 188Bet
Away2.96 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.10 @ 188Bet
No1.92 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.36 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.64 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Oxford United = 1.14 (league 1.31), Derby = 1.78 (league 1.10)

Derby
0 1 2 3 4 5
Oxford United 0 5.4% 9.6% 8.5% 5.0% 2.2% 0.8%
1 6.2% 11.0% 9.7% 5.8% 2.6% 0.9%
2 3.5% 6.3% 5.6% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5%
3 1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 24.3% · Draw 23.3% · Away win 51.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1