Tue, Oct 21 2025 • 18:45 • The Den
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.37 (league 1.31) 1.96 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
6.0% 18.1% 74.4%
best score tips
0 - 1
19.1%
0 - 2
18.7%
0 - 3
12.3%
Score & goals probability table
Stoke City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Millwall 0 9.7% 19.1% 18.7% 12.3% 6.0% 2.4%
1 3.6% 7.0% 6.9% 4.5% 2.2% 0.9%
2 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMillwallStoke City
Played55
Form67%40%
Attack64%27%
Defense45%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.43 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

58%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Millwall Stoke City
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins40%60%50%60%40%50%
Draws0%40%20%20%40%30%
Loses60%0%30%20%20%20%

Form: Millwall: WLWLDWDLWW • Stoke City: WWWLWLDDDW

League goals

Metric Millwall Stoke City
HATHAT
GF total47116612
GF avg0.81.41.11.21.21.2
GA total9413336
GA avg1.80.81.30.60.60.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMillwallStoke City
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%70%70%60%
1.530%30%30%0%
2.510%20%20%0%
3.50%10%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMillwallStoke City
HATHAT
Clean sheets213224
Failed to score303123

Penalties

MetricMillwallStoke City
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricMillwallStoke City
Wins13
Draws13
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-23-10-3
Biggest losses0-40-11-0
Goals For3233
Goals Against4111

Model comparison

MetricMillwallStoke City
Form63%38%
Att70%30%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution18%82%
H2h85%15%
Goals80%20%
Total58.2%42.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Millwall or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.49 @ Dafabet
Draw3.30 @ Dafabet
Away3.10 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.30 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.67 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.02 @ 188Bet
No1.88 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Millwall = 0.37 (league 1.31), Stoke City = 1.96 (league 1.10)

Stoke City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Millwall 0 9.7% 19.1% 18.7% 12.3% 6.0% 2.4%
1 3.6% 7.0% 6.9% 4.5% 2.2% 0.9%
2 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 6.0% · Draw 18.1% · Away win 74.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1