Tue, Oct 21 2025 • 18:45 • Pride Park
Match Finished
1 - 0
Expected Goals
1.05 (league 1.37) 2.24 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
16.5% 19.2% 61.6%
best score tips
1 - 2
9.8%
0 - 2
9.4%
1 - 1
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
Norwich
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 3.7% 8.4% 9.4% 7.0% 3.9% 1.7%
1 3.9% 8.8% 9.8% 7.3% 4.1% 1.8%
2 2.1% 4.6% 5.1% 3.8% 2.1% 1.0%
3 0.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyNorwich
Played55
Form20%7%
Attack27%36%
Defense55%18%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

78%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Norwich
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins0%20%10%0%40%20%
Draws60%40%50%0%40%20%
Loses40%40%40%100%20%60%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDL • Norwich: LWLWDLDLLL

League goals

Metric Derby Norwich
HATHAT
GF total65114711
GF avg1.21.01.10.81.41.1
GA total97169615
GA avg1.81.41.61.81.21.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyNorwich
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%90%80%90%
1.520%30%30%40%
2.510%20%0%20%
3.50%10%0%0%
4.50%10%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyNorwich
HATHAT
Clean sheets011011
Failed to score112202

Penalties

MetricDerbyNorwich
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricDerbyNorwich
Wins11
Draws31
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-1—0-2
Biggest losses3-53-12-33-1
Goals For3222
Goals Against5333

Model comparison

MetricDerbyNorwich
Form75%25%
Att43%57%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution36%64%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total53.0%47.0%

Advice: Double chance : Derby or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.48 @ Dafabet
Draw3.40 @ Pinnacle
Away3.37 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.23 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.84 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.90 @ Unibet
No2.08 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.05 (league 1.37), Norwich = 2.24 (league 1.13)

Norwich
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 3.7% 8.4% 9.4% 7.0% 3.9% 1.7%
1 3.9% 8.8% 9.8% 7.3% 4.1% 1.8%
2 2.1% 4.6% 5.1% 3.8% 2.1% 1.0%
3 0.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.5% · Draw 19.2% · Away win 61.6%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1