Sat, Oct 25 2025 • 14:00 • Pride Park
Match Finished
1 - 0

QPR

Expected Goals
1.83 (league 1.31) 2.06 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
34.0% 20.9% 42.2%
best score tips
1 - 2
7.9%
1 - 1
7.7%
2 - 2
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
QPR
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 2.0% 4.2% 4.3% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6%
1 3.7% 7.7% 7.9% 5.5% 2.8% 1.2%
2 3.4% 7.0% 7.3% 5.0% 2.6% 1.1%
3 2.1% 4.3% 4.4% 3.1% 1.6% 0.7%
4 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyQPR
Played55
Form40%53%
Attack33%42%
Defense67%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby QPR
HATHAT
Played65115611
Wins17%20%18%40%50%45%
Draws50%40%45%40%17%27%
Loses33%40%36%20%33%27%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLW • QPR: DLLWWWDDWLW

League goals

Metric Derby QPR
HATHAT
GF total75126915
GF avg1.21.01.11.21.51.4
GA total971641216
GA avg1.51.41.50.82.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyQPR
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.582%82%91%73%
1.518%27%27%27%
2.59%18%18%9%
3.50%9%0%9%
4.50%9%0%9%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyQPR
HATHAT
Clean sheets112213
Failed to score112101

Penalties

MetricDerbyQPR
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricDerbyQPR
Wins13
Draws32
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-13-11-3
Biggest losses3-53-11-27-1
Goals For3233
Goals Against5327

Model comparison

MetricDerbyQPR
Form43%57%
Att44%56%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution50%50%
H2h40%60%
Goals36%64%
Total43.8%56.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or QPR

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.85 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.75 @ Dafabet
Away3.10 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.20 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.78 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.88 @ Pinnacle
No1.97 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.83 (league 1.31), QPR = 2.06 (league 1.09)

QPR
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 2.0% 4.2% 4.3% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6%
1 3.7% 7.7% 7.9% 5.5% 2.8% 1.2%
2 3.4% 7.0% 7.3% 5.0% 2.6% 1.1%
3 2.1% 4.3% 4.4% 3.1% 1.6% 0.7%
4 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 34.0% · Draw 20.9% · Away win 42.2%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1