Sat, Nov 22 2025 • 15:00 • Pride Park
Match Finished
2 - 3
Expected Goals
1.34 (league 1.36) 0.80 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
49.1% 28.2% 22.3%
best score tips
1 - 0
15.8%
1 - 1
12.6%
0 - 0
11.8%
Score & goals probability table
Watford
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 11.8% 9.4% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 15.8% 12.6% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
2 10.6% 8.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 4.7% 3.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyWatford
Played55
Form100%53%
Attack50%44%
Defense83%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.66 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

70%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Watford
HATHAT
Played87158715
Wins38%43%40%63%0%33%
Draws38%29%33%25%43%33%
Loses25%29%27%13%57%33%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWW • Watford: LWDDLLWDWLWLWDD

League goals

Metric Derby Watford
HATHAT
GF total10102014519
GF avg1.31.41.31.80.71.3
GA total1091981018
GA avg1.31.31.31.01.41.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyWatford
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.587%80%73%93%
1.533%20%47%20%
2.513%13%7%7%
3.50%7%0%0%
4.50%7%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyWatford
HATHAT
Clean sheets213101
Failed to score112134

Penalties

MetricDerbyWatford
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricDerbyWatford
Wins11
Draws32
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-33-0—
Biggest losses3-53-10-13-1
Goals For3332
Goals Against5323

Model comparison

MetricDerbyWatford
Form65%35%
Att53%47%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution65%35%
H2h7%93%
Goals31%69%
Total48.0%52.0%

Advice: Double chance : Derby or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.55 @ Unibet
Draw3.25 @ Pinnacle
Away3.15 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ SBO
Under 2.51.65 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ 188Bet
No1.90 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.34 (league 1.36), Watford = 0.80 (league 1.14)

Watford
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 11.8% 9.4% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 15.8% 12.6% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
2 10.6% 8.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 4.7% 3.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 49.1% · Draw 28.2% · Away win 22.3%

Vtot 17 , Vtod1