Tue, Nov 25 2025 • 19:45 • Swansea.com Stadium
Match Finished
1 - 2
Expected Goals
1.05 (league 1.36) 1.96 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
19.7% 21.6% 57.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.1%
1 - 2
9.9%
0 - 1
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
Derby
0 1 2 3 4 5
Swansea 0 4.9% 9.6% 9.5% 6.2% 3.0% 1.2%
1 5.2% 10.1% 9.9% 6.5% 3.2% 1.3%
2 2.7% 5.3% 5.2% 3.4% 1.7% 0.7%
3 0.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSwanseaDerby
Played55
Form27%80%
Attack29%59%
Defense35%65%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 110 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

75%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Swansea Derby
HATHAT
Played88169716
Wins25%25%25%33%43%38%
Draws38%25%31%33%29%31%
Loses38%50%44%33%29%31%

Form: Swansea: LWDWDLDWLDLWDLLL • Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWL

League goals

Metric Swansea Derby
HATHAT
GF total9615121022
GF avg1.10.80.91.31.41.4
GA total1392213922
GA avg1.61.11.41.41.31.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSwanseaDerby
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%81%88%81%
1.525%31%38%25%
2.50%19%13%19%
3.50%6%0%6%
4.50%0%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSwanseaDerby
HATHAT
Clean sheets123213
Failed to score145112

Penalties

MetricSwanseaDerby
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricSwanseaDerby
Wins15
Draws13
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-22-11-3
Biggest losses1-43-03-53-1
Goals For2233
Goals Against4353

Model comparison

MetricSwanseaDerby
Form25%75%
Att33%67%
Def35%65%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h93%7%
Goals70%30%
Total48.8%51.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Derby

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.20 @ Unibet
Draw3.15 @ 188Bet
Away3.87 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.62 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.53 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.22 @ 188Bet
No1.76 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Swansea = 1.05 (league 1.36), Derby = 1.96 (league 1.14)

Derby
0 1 2 3 4 5
Swansea 0 4.9% 9.6% 9.5% 6.2% 3.0% 1.2%
1 5.2% 10.1% 9.9% 6.5% 3.2% 1.3%
2 2.7% 5.3% 5.2% 3.4% 1.7% 0.7%
3 0.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 19.7% · Draw 21.6% · Away win 57.1%

Vtot 10 , Vtod1