Sat, Dec 6 2025 • 12:30 • Pride Park
Not Started
—
Expected Goals
1.34 (league 1.36) 1.47 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
34.2% 25.2% 39.9%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.9%
0 - 1
8.9%
1 - 2
8.7%
Score & goals probability table
Leicester
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 6.1% 8.9% 6.5% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3%
1 8.1% 11.9% 8.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.4% 7.9% 5.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
3 2.4% 3.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyLeicester
Played55
Form60%47%
Attack50%39%
Defense56%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Leicester
HATHAT
Played99189918
Wins33%44%39%33%33%33%
Draws33%22%28%44%22%33%
Loses33%33%33%22%44%33%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWL • Leicester: WLWWDDDDWDLLLDWWLL

League goals

Metric Derby Leicester
HATHAT
GF total121325111122
GF avg1.31.41.41.21.21.2
GA total131225101323
GA avg1.41.31.41.11.41.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyLeicester
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%83%78%83%
1.539%28%39%33%
2.511%17%6%11%
3.50%6%0%0%
4.50%6%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyLeicester
HATHAT
Clean sheets213213
Failed to score112224

Penalties

MetricDerbyLeicester
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricDerbyLeicester
Wins52
Draws34
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-32-01-3
Biggest losses3-53-10-23-0
Goals For3323
Goals Against5333

Model comparison

MetricDerbyLeicester
Form56%44%
Att56%44%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution50%50%
H2h7%93%
Goals30%70%
Total42.0%58.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Leicester

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.70 @ Unibet
Draw3.27 @ Pinnacle
Away2.75 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.36 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.65 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.99 @ Pinnacle
No1.91 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.34 (league 1.36), Leicester = 1.47 (league 1.15)

Leicester
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 6.1% 8.9% 6.5% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3%
1 8.1% 11.9% 8.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.4% 7.9% 5.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
3 2.4% 3.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 34.2% · Draw 25.2% · Away win 39.9%

Vtot 6 , Vtod2