Wed, Dec 10 2025 • 19:45 • Pride Park
Match Finished
1 - 1
Expected Goals
1.32 (league 1.38) 1.72 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.2% 23.6% 46.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.9%
1 - 2
9.3%
0 - 1
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
Millwall
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 4.8% 8.2% 7.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
1 6.3% 10.9% 9.3% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8%
2 4.2% 7.2% 6.2% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5%
3 1.8% 3.1% 2.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2%
4 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyMillwall
Played55
Form40%67%
Attack57%50%
Defense29%57%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

78%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Millwall
HATHAT
Played1091910919
Wins30%44%37%60%44%53%
Draws30%22%26%10%33%21%
Loses40%33%37%30%22%26%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLL • Millwall: WLWLDWDLWWWWDLDLWWW

League goals

Metric Derby Millwall
HATHAT
GF total131326121123
GF avg1.31.41.41.21.21.2
GA total161228121325
GA avg1.61.31.51.21.41.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyMillwall
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%84%79%63%
1.537%32%32%37%
2.511%21%11%21%
3.50%5%0%11%
4.50%5%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyMillwall
HATHAT
Clean sheets213527
Failed to score112314

Penalties

MetricDerbyMillwall
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricDerbyMillwall
Wins54
Draws31
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-33-01-2
Biggest losses3-53-10-44-0
Goals For3332
Goals Against5344

Model comparison

MetricDerbyMillwall
Form38%63%
Att53%47%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h15%85%
Goals33%67%
Total37.2%63.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Millwall

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.74 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.15 @ Pinnacle
Away2.85 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.35 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.65 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.98 @ 188Bet
No1.93 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.32 (league 1.38), Millwall = 1.72 (league 1.11)

Millwall
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 4.8% 8.2% 7.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
1 6.3% 10.9% 9.3% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8%
2 4.2% 7.2% 6.2% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5%
3 1.8% 3.1% 2.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2%
4 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.2% · Draw 23.6% · Away win 46.1%

vtt 11 , vtd1