Sat, Dec 20 2025 • 15:00 • Pride Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.62 (league 1.37) 0.94 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.5% 24.9% 22.0%
best score tips
1 - 0
12.5%
1 - 1
11.8%
2 - 0
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
Portsmouth
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 7.7% 7.3% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
1 12.5% 11.8% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.1% 9.5% 4.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 5.4% 5.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 2.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyPortsmouth
Played55
Form47%40%
Attack44%28%
Defense61%61%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Portsmouth
HATHAT
Played11102111920
Wins27%50%38%36%11%25%
Draws36%20%29%18%33%25%
Loses36%30%33%45%56%50%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDW • Portsmouth: WLDWDLLDWDLLLDLWLLLW

League goals

Metric Derby Portsmouth
HATHAT
GF total14163011617
GF avg1.31.61.41.00.70.9
GA total171229121527
GA avg1.51.21.41.11.71.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyPortsmouth
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%81%60%75%
1.538%29%20%40%
2.514%19%5%15%
3.50%5%0%5%
4.50%5%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyPortsmouth
HATHAT
Clean sheets224325
Failed to score112448

Penalties

MetricDerbyPortsmouth
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricDerbyPortsmouth
Wins51
Draws31
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-33-10-1
Biggest losses3-53-10-24-0
Goals For3332
Goals Against5324

Model comparison

MetricDerbyPortsmouth
Form54%46%
Att62%38%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h64%36%
Goals63%38%
Total59.5%40.7%

Advice: Double chance : Derby or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.11 @ 188Bet
Draw3.35 @ Pinnacle
Away4.02 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.32 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.67 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.02 @ Pinnacle
No1.83 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.62 (league 1.37), Portsmouth = 0.94 (league 1.11)

Portsmouth
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 7.7% 7.3% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
1 12.5% 11.8% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.1% 9.5% 4.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 5.4% 5.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 2.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.5% · Draw 24.9% · Away win 22.0%

vtt 20 , vtd1